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Betting Apps
Are Polymarket and Kalshi Legal in the UK? Explained
Are Polymarket and Kalshi Legal in the UK? Explained
Predict this, Poly that, but UK availability stays a gap.
Prediction markets are on the rise worldwide, especially after Polymarket processed billions of pounds in volume during the 2024 US presidential elections. Polymarket often shares headlines with Kalshi, another prediction market, and UK punters are naturally curious whether Polymarket and Kalshi are legal in the UK.
We’ve been following the prediction market scene closely in the UK, and the legal situation around them isn't as straightforward as you might hope.
Here's everything you need to know about the legal status of these prediction markets in the UK.
Is Polymarket Legal in the UK?
No, Polymarket is not legal in the UK, so it's not available to UK residents. The platform doesn’t hold a UK Gambling Commission license, so Polymarket self-restricts British users.
Polymarket operates as a decentralised prediction exchange on the Polygon blockchain. It uses USDC, a stablecoin, for all transactions. This decentralized setup works well in many parts of the world, but Polymarket needs to comply with the UK’s gambling regulations and get proper licensing before it can officially onboard UK users.
There’s a silver lining, however, if you have a dual citizenship and are a citizen of a country where Polymarket is legal, you may be able to use the platform when physically present in that country. However, placing bets while on British soil remains off-limits.
VPN Usage to Access Polymarket and Kalshi
Using VPN to circumvent geographic restrictions on Polymarket and Kalshi can result in account closure.
Is Kalshi Legal in the UK?
No, Kalshi is not legal in the UK. The platform lists the United Kingdom among its restricted jurisdictions due to EU regulatory divergence and licensing requirements.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated prediction market in the United States. It’s labeled more as a financial exchange than a traditional bookmaker. The federal licensing in the US doesn’t extend to UK operations, though.
Kalshi recently hit a $5 billion valuation amid its international expansion, but the UK didn’t make the cut, yet. Kalshi’s restricted list also includes other major betting markets, like France, Canada, Australia, and Singapore.
Polymarket and Kalshi Alternatives in the UK
UK betting apps offer entertainment and special markets that occasionally overlap with Polymarket and Kalshi markets. These can include political events, TV shows, and global events.
Shows like Strictly Come Dancing, political events, and even snow on Christmas Day can have odds on betting apps, mainly in the entertainment section. You may even see WWE events sneak in there from time to time, and the main advantage of using a licensed UK betting app will be security, as you won’t risk account closures for simply being in the wrong country.
Most popular sports prediction market pools are often alternate versions of outright bets in major events, so you’ll usually find them in the football, horse racing, tennis, NBA, or NFL sections of your favourite betting app. I should also note that Polymarket and Kalshi are big on esports, but the best esports bettings apps, like Midnite, still offer plenty of variety with major games and competitions covered.
Here are our top 5 alternatives to Polymarket and Kalshi in the UK:
FAQs about prediction markets
Can you make money on prediction markets?
Yes, you can make money on prediction markets, but it’s not a guarantee, just like it isn’t in betting. Contracts trade between £0.01 and £0.99 on platforms like Kalshi, with the price reflecting market confidence. If you buy a "Yes" contract at £0.30 and the outcome occurs, you receive £1.00, netting £0.70 profit.
How do prediction markets pay out?
Prediction markets pay out winners upon contract settlement. Polymarket and Kalshi use official data sources to verify outcomes. Losing contracts expire worthless, and you can sell positions before resolution if you want to lock in profits or cut losses early.
What prediction markets are available in the UK?
No major prediction markets currently operate legally in the UK. Both Polymarket and Kalshi restrict British users. However, you can use UK-licensed betting apps like bet365, BOYLE Sports, and BetVictor as they can offer odds for entertainment categories and elections.
Which prediction site is best in the UK?
There are no dedicated prediction sites in the UK, but Bet365, Betfair, and BetVictor are decent alternatives.
How good are prediction markets?
Prediction markets proved themselves popular and even outperformed traditional polling during major events. Polymarket, for example, priced a Trump victory in 2024 ahead of most conventional forecasts. They’re effective at capturing real-time public sentiment and offer a more engaging alternative to traditional betting.
What are prediction markets and how do they work?
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on real-world event outcomes. In most markets, you buy "Yes" or "No" positions on questions like "Will inflation rise this month?" with contract prices ranging from £0.01 and £0.99. If you're right, your contract pays out $1.00. If you're wrong, it expires worthless.
How are prediction markets different from gambling?
Prediction markets differ from straight-out gambling because they are considered as financial exchanges, with contracts treated as derivatives rather than wagers. That’s at least the case in the US, but the UK doesn't recognise this distinction, which is why platforms like Polymarket would need a UKGC gambling licence to operate here.
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets often reflect public sentiment, and the accuracy of these platforms often comes from the wisdom-of-crowds effect.
How do prediction markets work in sports betting?
Sports prediction markets function similarly to betting exchanges like Betfair. You trade contracts against other users on outcomes like match winners or tournament champions instead of taking odds from bookmakers.
Gökhan Çakır
Editor at Betting Apps UK
Personally, I see Polymarket and Kalshi's growth as a sign for just how much appetite there is for markets that feel more dynamic.
Considering the volumes that prediction markets draw, I’d expect there to be ongoing conversations with regulators worldwide as they work to secure licences and open their doors to more users. The UK would naturally be a key market in that process, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see meaningful progress in the coming years.
